Reuter site - UPDATE 1-RIM turnaround could take up to 5 years, Watsa says
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UPDATE 1-RIM turnaround could take up to 5 years, Watsa says
Thu, Apr 26 16:24 PM EDT
* Smartphone maker has fallen behind rivals
* Hurdles in the road, but a good buy at current
levels-Watsa
* Fairfax CEO says stocks better than bonds over next decade
* Shares rise 3.6 pct
By Cameron French
TORONTO, April 26 (Reuters) - Research in Motion Ltd
may take up to five years to regain its stride after
its recent stumbles, but the BlackBerry maker's stock is a good
value at current levels, investor Prem Watsa said on Thursday.
Speaking at the annual shareholder meeting of Fairfax
Financial Holdings Ltd, the Canadian insurer he heads,
Watsa said he believed RIM's recent troubles were mere hurdles
for a company he called a "Canadian success story."
"Is it going to turn around in three months, six months,
nine months? No," Watsa told reporters after the meeting in
Toronto. "But if you're looking four, five years ... We make
investments over four or five years."
RIM's once high-flying shares have dropped 70 percent during
the past 12 months as it has bled market share to smartphone
rivals such as Apple Inc while demand for its Playbook
tablet device has floundered.
RIM's Toronto-listed shares rose nearly 4 percent Thursday
afternoon to C$13.90, likely helped by reports on a
Blackbery-focused blog that RIM plans to announce its first
BlackBerry 10 device in August for an October launch.
RIM declined to comment on the report, citing its standard
policy not to talk about rumors and speculation. The company
said in late March the first BlackBerry 10 device remained on
track for a launch in the latter part of the year.
VALUE INVESTOR
Watsa, a value investor whose approach and acumen is
sometimes compared to Warren Buffett's, joined RIM's board in
January as part of a front-office shuffle in which Thorsten
Heins replaced longtime co-CEOs Jim Balsillie and Mike
Lazaridis.
Watsa also boosted Fairfax's stake in RIM to 5.1 percent at
the time, making it one of the company's largest shareholders.
Asked what he saw in the struggling company, Watsa pointed
to his close friendship and admiration for Lazaridis, who
remains on the company's board, and suggested shareholders have
been to quick to give up on the company.
"Mike Lazaridis is a technical genius. Some of you might
forget that this is a company in Canada that invented the
(mobile) email service that we all use. It's not like Apple
wasn't there, and Google wasn't there," he said,
stressing that he was speaking as an investor, rather than as a
board member.
Once the dominant player in the smartphone sector, RIM's
Blackberry has withered from competition from Apple's iPhone and
Google's Android system, prompting Lazaridis and Balsillie, the
men who had engineered RIM"s rise, to step down in favor of
former Siemens executive Heins.
More recently, RIM has hired lawyers to work out a
restructuring plan that could include selling assets, seeking
joint ventures or licensing patents, according to people briefed
on the matter.
Watsa would not comment on how RIM should move forward,
stressing that his investment was based primarily on his belief
the stock was undervalued.
"The stock price is down 90 percent (from its all-time high
in 2008). That overrides everything else," he said.
"People think that ... when things are going down it's over,
and when things are going up, it will never stop. The reality is
it's different," he said, noting the company's strong cash
position and lack of long-term debt.
"But there's no guarantees," he said.
GOOD MACRO CALLS
Watsa has built a reputation as a shrewd investor by
correctly calling major market disruptions like the 2008 and
1987 stock market crashes, and making billions for Fairfax as a
result.
Speaking at the meeting, he said he would maintain the
company's hedges on its equity holdings, as he believed the
equity market would retrench over the next few years.\
Further out, however, he said the days of bonds
outperforming stocks were likely over.
"If you take a 10-year view, stocks are going to be a
terrific place," he said. "For us, caution is the best way
forward."
